RCIS

Abstract:

The article is devoted to the development and empirical approbation of a risk-based model of public management of critical infrastructure resilience in the face of multidimensional threats to national security. On the example of the energy sector of Ukraine, the impact of military threats on the functioning of critical infrastructure, the role of state institutions and international assistance in ensuring its resilience is studied. The empirical basis of the study is open data from the Energy Map analytical platform, including three sets: massive strikes on energy facilities, the use of power supply restrictions, and international aid. The data is aggregated to the monthly level for the period 2022-2026. For a comprehensive assessment of resilience, the Integral Index of Critical Infrastructure Resilience is proposed, which integrates three components: the level of threats (Threat Index), the consequences of risk implementation (Consequences Index) and the recovery capacity (Recovery Index). The results of the analysis revealed the cyclical nature of the impact of threats on the power system, a high level of correlation between the intensity of attacks, power outages and the volume of assistance. It is shown that international support plays a key role in compensating for losses, but it is mainly reactive. The dynamics of the Integral Index of Critical Infrastructure Resilience demonstrate the adaptive resilience of the system, which manifests itself in cyclical recovery from periods of crisis, although overall resilience remains vulnerable to intense attacks. The proposed model confirms the transition from traditional risk management to holistic, adaptive governance. The results of the study are of theoretical importance for the development of dynamic resilience concepts and practical value for improving the policy of critical infrastructure protection in the face of military and hybrid threats. Prospects for further research are related to the extension of the model to other sectors and the integration of social indicators.

Keywords:

risk-based management; critical infrastructure resilience; energy security; multidimensional threats; Integral Index of Critical Infrastructure Resilience; international aid.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33788/rcis.94.8

Download: Risk-Based Model of Public Management of Critical Infrastructure Resilience in the Face of Multidimensional Threats to National Security