RCIS

Abstract:

This study explores the individual and contextual determinants shaping migration intentions in Moldova and Estonia – two countries situated at the periphery of the European Union, yet characterized by contrasting demographic and economic trajectories. Moldova has experienced sustained depopulation over the past three decades, primarily driven by high levels of emigration that continue to this day. In contrast, Estonia, while initially affected by significant emigration flows post-EU accession, has recently recorded a shift toward a positive net migration balance. The empirical analysis draws on nationally representative microdata from the Generations and Gender Survey conducted in Moldova (2020) and Estonia (2021–2022). The study employs multinomial logistic regression to identify and compare the key determinants of emigration intentions within the next three years. A two-stage methodological strategy was applied: an initial exploratory analysis within each country to identify significant predictors, followed by a unified comparative model using the most robust variables identified in the Moldovan sample. The results reveal that in both Moldova and Estonia, young people are the most likely to express emigration intentions. However, the underlying motivations differ substantially. In Moldova, migration is largely constraint-driven, with financial hardship and economic instability acting as key push factors. In contrast, in Estonia, migration appears more aspirational and opportunity-oriented, driven by professional goals and the desire for personal development. Cultural influences diverge as well. In Moldova, lower religiosity is associated with greater migration intentions, suggesting more secular and individualistic values among prospective migrants. In Estonia, religiosity has no significant impact, reflecting a highly secularized society. These findings underscore the importance of both structural and individual factors, and point to the need for Moldova to shift from a survival-based migration model to one rooted in domestic opportunity and socio-economic cohesion.

Keywords:

migration intentions; determinants of migration intentions; factors of migration; demographic changes; depopulation; Moldova; Estonia; Eastern Europe; GGS.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33788/rcis.92.11

Download: Navigating Migration Choices: Understanding Individual and Structural Determinants in Moldova and Estonia